My morning's just getting going out here in Las Vegas as IBS officially kicks off today. But before I finish my morning cup of joe and head off to start a very full day of meetings, I figured I'd post a quick rundown of some of the hottest topics being debated by IBS attendees as they connect with friends and colleagues for coffee and cocktails and everything in between.
- Hot lots: The Las Vegas land market has definitely heated up. Most of the public builders, with a few notable exceptions, are going aggressively after land in an effort to bulk up on community counts. Word from the streets is that pretty much the "A" location finished lot deals are long gone, and builders, both public and private, are getting a little less picky both in terms of quality of lot location and price. With pickings get slim for finished lots, some builders are beginning to look seriously at some raw land deals in the area.
- Start-ups rev their engines: Yesterday, I wrote about the fast moves that Las Vegas newbie Harmony Homes was making in the local market. However, the company's not alone. Adaven Homes, whose brain trust includes some former Pageantry Homes talent, also is starting up operations. Unburdened by bad land or debt, these companies are able to build competitive product. Building a home for $30 to $40 a square foot is no longer a public builder skill set.
- To spec or not to spec: Spec may still be a dirty word, but it's looking like an attractive survival strategy for most builders in 2010. Given the limits of the tax credit extension, many builders are keenly aware of how critically important the spring selling season is for their balance sheets in the year ahead. The year's performance is very much tied to how many homes they can deliver before the end of 2Q2010, which means the pressure is on for public and private alike to capture as many new orders as possible as early as possible. And this means having enough product far enough along in the construction process to be able to close before the deadline. So, builders who've traditionally been spec averse are reevaluating their short-term strategies to stay competitive, considering options like upping starts but stopping construction at drywall.
- Financing fears: With the FHA due to come out with some sort of announcement as early as this week, home buyer financing is certainly top of mind for many builders in Las Vegas and elsewhere. Less serious would be a statement of minimum credit score requirements--builders have been dealing with rising credit score requirements for the past year as secondary mortgage market investors have already been raising that bar--but more grave would be any of the other possible proposals that would ultimately require home buyers to bring more money to the closing table. (Think higher down payment requirements, higher mortgage insurance premiums, or less closing cost assistance, to name a few options under consideration.) While some builders have adopted a "we'll just deal with it attitude," others are seriously concerned about whether their businesses could afford to take another leg down because of financing constraints. Many builders are saying that 80% or more of their buyers are using FHA financing.
I've got to run, but I'll be following up more on these hot topics as the week goes on. Stay tuned!