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You Heard it Here First

We're opening a thread here, looking for your list of three to 10 housing predictions for 2009. Care to call the bottom? Now that private equity has put a value of about $14 billion on IndyMac, will there be takers for real estate related assets of other banks at asking prices that make the deals pencil? How many home building-related companies, trades, manufacturers, and distributors will need to close their doors as they run dry of resources to keep operating?

Prophets who got it wrong in the old days had something to lose when they messed up on the job. Like their lives. Today though, if you're wrong about what you say will happen in the next 12 months, you'll probably be right about it within the 12 months after that. The bears after all were dead wrong for two or three years before they were absolutely right, proving the bulls wrong for a year or three.

Reader-generated content is taking other business sectors by storm, and the flow of wit, witticism, insight, and cynicism has sparked new ideas and budding relationships galore. Imagine, you could start something in residential real estate and share in the pride of your authorship, which we'll be glad either to publish or keep quiet, as you prefer.

Maybe the following list of 10 relatively playful predictions for 2009 will help prime your prognostigative pump. Remember, you heard these here first:

  • Congress won't fix housing first. Most of our elected officials would find it too daunting and difficult to switch out screens for storm windows, let alone understand the intricate weave of home building, jobs, spending, and confidence that advocates of a home purchasing stimulus propose.
  • Former John Laing Homes CEO Larry Webb will finish the job disposing of LandSource, and will lead a vaunted team of experienced executives in a successful effort to buy a company for about $250 million. Maybe John Laing Homes.
  •  Builder will be hard-pressed to identify a Builder 100 for 2009 in 2010, and the "Next 100" will be even harder to develop.
  • Giants 28-Titans 24, Feb. 7, 2009. Hey, this is our list!
  • MatlinPatterson will merge Standard Pacific, TOUSA, Levitt, and Beazer into a Southeast-based super-regional Top 10 public operator, exit the land ownership and development business, and finally sell its newly streamlined merchant home building organization to NVR.
  • $1 in 2006 currency will be worth 18 pennies in June 2009.
  • J. Crew will introduce a line of smart casual road-crew wear aimed at former Wall Street associates.
  • AIG will have sold any and all of its non-toxic businesses, and the resulting cesspool of credit derivatives will ultimately be deemed too inconsequential to bail out again. The company's executives will meet at the Aspen St. Regis for five days to dismantle operations.
  • Quadrillion will be the new trillion.
  • By Super Bowl XLV in Dallas, in February 2010, high-volume home building will once again refer to more than the loudness of boom boxes in the rafters of new construction. Barely perceptible, recovery will begin with three home sales per community per month. That's high volume.

Your list goes in the "comments" area below. Sorry about the limits on wordcount. Use several comments if you need to.

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